Tokyo, April 1 — The Japanese government has issued a stark warning about the potential devastation of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake expected to strike along the Nankai Trough, a seismic zone off the country’s Pacific coast. A new report prepared by a government-appointed panel of experts projects a death toll of up to 298,000, primarily due to tsunamis and building collapses.
Although this updated estimate is slightly lower than the previous projection of 323,000 deaths made in 2012–2013, it remains alarmingly high. The reduction reflects improvements in earthquake-resistant infrastructure and the construction of tsunami defense systems over the past decade.
The report also estimates that such a disaster could result in economic damage totaling 292.2 trillion yen, a sharp increase from the previous figure of 237.2 trillion yen, highlighting the growing potential financial burden of such an event.
If the Nankai earthquake occurs, it could produce level 7 tremors—the highest on Japan’s seismic intensity scale—in at least 149 municipalities across 10 prefectures, affecting millions and triggering widespread destruction.
The Nankai Trough has long been considered one of Japan’s most dangerous seismic zones, and experts warn that a major quake in the region is not a matter of “if,” but “when.” The Japanese government continues to urge citizens and municipalities to strengthen preparedness and disaster response plans.
