Sri Lanka face Afghanistan in a do-or-die Asia Cup 2025 clash where victory guarantees qualification, but even defeat could be survivable if the net run rate calculator shows mercy. Bangladesh’s hopes, meanwhile, hang on every run scored.
Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 has turned into a nail-biting drama, with Sri Lanka’s showdown against Afghanistan on September 18 set to decide who advances to the Super Four. For Sri Lanka, the stakes are crystal clear: win, and the ticket is booked. But even a loss could keep them alive, provided the net run rate (NRR) does not betray them.
Bangladesh’s win over Afghanistan earlier has thrown the group wide open, creating a virtual knockout scenario. With Hong Kong, China, already eliminated after three consecutive defeats, the final clash between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will determine not only their futures but also Bangladesh’s.
Sri Lanka’s Qualification Math
For Sri Lanka, the equation is straightforward. A win seals the deal. But if they lose, survival depends on keeping their NRR above Bangladesh’s -0.270. For example, if Sri Lanka bat first and score 150, they must prevent Afghanistan from chasing it down in fewer than 11.2 overs. Alternatively, if Afghanistan post 150, Sri Lanka only need to score at least 84 runs to qualify, even if they lose. The exact numbers may shift based on totals, but the room for error is minimal.
Afghanistan’s Path
Afghanistan have the simplest route: win and they qualify. Their NRR is already well above Bangladesh, meaning that a victory automatically sends them through. However, a loss ends their Asia Cup campaign on the spot.
Bangladesh’s Slim Hopes
For Bangladesh, it is a case of scoreboard watching. Their fate depends entirely on the Sri Lanka–Afghanistan clash. If Sri Lanka win, Bangladesh progress. But if Afghanistan win, then the second qualifying spot will be decided on NRR between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Given the current numbers, Sri Lanka still hold the upper hand unless they collapse to a heavy defeat.
The High-Stakes Decider
The September 18 clash now stands as the defining fixture of Group B. All three teams remain in contention, and with NRR looming as a possible tiebreaker, every over and every run could prove decisive. Sri Lanka will look to leverage their bowling strength to control Afghanistan’s dangerous top order, while Afghanistan will aim to exploit Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities with the bat.
The outcome will not just determine who marches into the Super Four but also whether Bangladesh can breathe a sigh of relief or exit the tournament with shattered hopes. Whatever happens, the calculators will be working overtime.
SOURCE :- DAILY MIRROR
