By Dwayne Ferreira
In a matchup that feels like a collision of tectonic plates, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and the resurgent Elena Rybakina are set to face off in the 2026 Australian Open final. This isn’t just a championship match, it’s a highstakes rematch of their legendary 2023 final. It carries three years of evolved rivalry and peak-level dominance and for the first time since 2004 (Henin vs. Clijsters), both finalists have reached the Saturday showdown without dropping a single set.
Sabalenka has been a force of nature, dismantling opponents like Elina Svitolina with a terrifying blend of raw power and newly refined variety. The “Tiger” of Minsk is seeking her third Melbourne crown in four years, a feat that would cement her status as the undisputed queen of hard courts.
Rybakina, meanwhile, has navigated a significantly steeper path. To earn her spot, the Kazakh star took down World No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals before cooling the red hot Jessica Pegula in the semis. Rybakina is currently riding a wave of momentum that saw her clinch the 2025 WTA Finals title in Riyadh, a victory that came at Sabalenka’s expense.
While both players are famed for “first-strike” tennis, the tactical nuances have shifted. No longer just a baseline basher, Sabalenka has integrated delicate drop shots and frequent net approaches into her game. Her serve, once her Achilles’ heel, is now a reliable weapon.
Rybakina on the other hand remains the tour’s premier server. Her ability to find lines under pressure neutralizes Sabalenka’s aggressive returns. If the roof is closed, the indoor-like conditions favor Rybakina’s flatter, precision-based groundstrokes.
Sabalenka enters as the slight favorite due to her 20-1 record in Melbourne over the last three years, but Rybakina is one of the few players who isn’t intimidated by Sabalenka’s pace. Expect a match defined by razor-thin margins and service holds. If Rybakina can maintain her first-serve percentage above 65%, she may well flip the script on Aryna.
