A troubling energy warning from the Public Utilities Commission reveals how poor quality coal shipments and rising electricity demand could push Sri Lanka toward power outages in the coming months, raising serious concerns about energy security and costly procurement failures.
Sri Lanka may face serious electricity shortages in the coming months as a new Public Utilities Commission report warns that power generation capacity could struggle to meet national demand. According to the report, the situation is being aggravated by low quality coal supplied to the Lakvijaya coal power plant, raising concerns about potential power cuts and instability in the national electricity supply.
The report notes that if electricity demand rises to around 3030 megawatts in April under normal conditions, the country may struggle to produce enough generation capacity during nighttime hours. This shortfall could make it difficult to maintain uninterrupted electricity supply across the island.
Energy demand forecasts also show continued risk in the following months. If national demand reaches approximately 3070 megawatts in June and 3000 megawatts in July, the pressure on the power system is expected to remain high, increasing the possibility of electricity shortages.
The report highlights that the three generators at the Lakvijaya Power Plant are currently capable of producing an average of only about 690 megawatts. Officials attribute this reduction in performance to the declining quality of coal supplied by Trident Coal Company. Engineers estimate that around 40 megawatts of generation capacity is being lost from a single generator due to the inferior coal quality.
Authorities warn that the situation could worsen significantly if one generator fails or if a major operational disruption occurs at the Lakvijaya facility during these critical months.
Further analysis from the Public Utilities Commission indicates that coal supplied to the plant by Trident as of the 25th cannot reliably generate the expected capacity of 300 megawatts per generator. The company secured the contract to supply 1.5 million tons of coal and has delivered nine shipments between December 2025 and the 25th.
However, the report confirms that none of the plant’s generators have reached the expected maximum capacity using the coal from these shipments. By comparison, earlier coal supplied by Poten Gia LLC enabled all generators to reach full 300 megawatt output, suggesting that the earlier supply was significantly higher in quality.
The financial consequences are also considerable. The Public Utilities Commission estimates that Sri Lanka has already suffered losses amounting to approximately Rs. 849.7 million due to the lower efficiency of the coal supplied by Trident.
Delays in coal shipments are adding further uncertainty. Officials say the tenth shipment arrived later than expected and there are concerns that additional deliveries may also be delayed. If all remaining shipments arrive on schedule, supplies could last until early October. However, if shipments continue to slip behind schedule, reserves may only sustain power generation until late August.
