A political dispute is escalating in India as leaders in the southern states resist proposed changes to the country’s electoral map. The upcoming delimitation process, which will redraw parliamentary constituencies based on population shifts, is expected to shift political power toward the more densely populated northern states. Southern leaders argue that their region, which has lower birth rates and stronger economic performance, is being unfairly penalized for its success in controlling population growth. Some politicians have even encouraged families to have more children to counterbalance the population-driven seat allocation system.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has been one of the most vocal critics, warning that delimitation poses a significant threat to the South, particularly states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana. These regions account for about 20 percent of India’s population and have outperformed other states in areas such as health, education, and economic development. However, their leaders fear that they will lose parliamentary seats in the future, which they see as a punishment for maintaining lower birth rates while contributing more to federal revenue. Wealthier southern states have traditionally sent more tax revenue to the central government, while poorer, highly populated states in the north have received larger shares based on financial need.
The Indian Constitution mandates that parliamentary seats be distributed based on each state’s population. Constituencies must be of roughly equal size, and seats are to be reallocated after every census to reflect population changes. This process occurred three times following the decennial censuses of 1951, 1961, and 1971. However, concerns about disproportionate representation led successive governments to freeze seat allocations after 1971. The next delimitation exercise is scheduled for 2026, but since India has not conducted a census since 2011, there is uncertainty surrounding the process.
Currently, the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament, consists of 543 seats, a number that has remained unchanged since 1971. At the time, each MP represented an average of 700,000 people. That number has since tripled, with each MP now representing about 2.5 million people, significantly more than the 750,000 per MP in the U.S. House of Representatives or the 120,000 per MP in the UK Parliament. This underrepresentation is not uniform across states. In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, each MP represents roughly three million people, whereas in Kerala, an MP represents about 1.75 million. As a result, a Kerala voter has nearly twice the electoral influence of a voter in Uttar Pradesh. Economist Shruti Rajagopalan highlights the severity of this imbalance, pointing out that Tamil Nadu and Kerala currently have more seats than their proportional share, while states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have fewer.
By 2031, this imbalance is projected to worsen, with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar falling further behind in their representation while Tamil Nadu continues to hold an outsized share of seats. This has raised concerns that India is failing to uphold its constitutional principle of equal representation, known as “one person, one vote.” To address this, experts have proposed various solutions, including increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats. If India were to restore the original constitutional ratio of one MP per 750,000 people, the Lok Sabha would need to expand to 1,872 seats, a number far beyond the current infrastructure capacity. A more moderate approach suggests increasing seats to 848, ensuring that no state loses its current representation.
Another proposed solution is to decentralize fiscal powers, allowing states to retain a larger portion of their tax revenue rather than relying on central government allocations. Southern leaders argue that they already contribute more in taxes while receiving less funding compared to northern states, which benefit from greater financial redistribution. Reforming the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Parliament, is another potential measure. Currently, Rajya Sabha seats are allocated based on population, which disproportionately benefits larger states. Some experts suggest fixing the number of seats per state, similar to the U.S. Senate, to ensure equal representation regardless of population.
Another suggestion involves splitting up large states like Uttar Pradesh, which currently holds significant sway over national politics. If Uttar Pradesh’s projected seat share increases from 14 to 16 percent after delimitation, its dominance in shaping national policy will be further solidified. Breaking the state into smaller administrative units could help address concerns about representation. However, such a move would require major political consensus and restructuring.
As concerns over representation grow, southern leaders have found unexpected allies in Punjab, another region wary of central control. Many politicians are now calling on the government to freeze electoral boundaries until at least 2056, arguing that an immediate delimitation would unfairly punish states that have successfully controlled their population growth. The central government has remained largely silent on the issue. Home Minister Amit Shah recently assured that southern states would not lose “even a single seat,” but the meaning of this statement remains unclear. Tensions between Tamil Nadu and the federal government have also escalated, particularly over disputes related to education policies and funding allocations.
Political analysts warn that the growing North-South divide could pose a serious threat to India’s federal structure. Some experts argue that increasing parliamentary seats while ensuring that no state loses its current representation is the most practical and democratic solution. As the debate intensifies, the challenge for India will be to find a compromise that upholds democratic principles while preventing further divisions in an already polarized political landscape.
