The government may be quietly relieved, but a sharp political warning is emerging as surveys suggest its voter base has shrunk dramatically, raising serious questions about delayed elections, democratic fear, and a collapse in public confidence.
Party leader and lawyer Udaya Gammanpila said the government still has something to celebrate, after a recent private survey reportedly showed that the ruling Compass retains around 25 percent of the national vote. He made these remarks at a media briefing held by the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya, framing the figure not as a success story but as a sign of political fear.
Minister of Public Administration and Provincial Councils Chandana Abhayaratne announced that provincial council elections would need to be postponed due to Cyclone Ditva. Gammanpila dismissed this explanation as absurd, arguing that Sri Lanka has successfully held elections during far darker periods. He recalled that when the first provincial council elections were conducted in 1988, the country was engulfed by conflict on two fronts, with LTTE terrorism in the North and JVP violence in the South. Despite those conditions, elections were held nationwide in the name of democracy.
He pointed out that not only provincial councils but also the 1988 presidential election and the 1989 parliamentary election took place amid intense security threats. For nearly four decades of terrorism in the North, no government had used security as an excuse to obstruct elections. Against that historical backdrop, claiming that a cyclone prevents polls appears deeply unconvincing.
According to Gammanpila, provincial council elections delayed since 2018 could easily be held even next month. He said the legal barrier can be removed by introducing a simple three section bill to repeal the Provincial Council Elections Act passed in 2018. Once elections are held under the old system and councils are established, there would be five years to appoint a committee, gather public views, redraw boundaries, and introduce a revised electoral framework.
He rejected claims of legal complexity, saying even a child could understand the solution. The real issue, he argued, is fear. A nationwide popularity survey conducted by a private firm and submitted to the President two weeks ago allegedly shows the government’s support slipping below 25 percent, making victory in any provincial council extremely unlikely.
Gammanpila referred to the May 2025 by election, where the Compass secured 43 percent of the vote. An analysis on his YouTube channel suggested that even at that level, the party would have won only the North Central and Western Provincial Councils. Since then, he said, a series of political missteps, social tensions, attacks on clergy, and exposés involving coal and salt scams have badly damaged the government’s standing.
He argued that these developments explain why support has fallen from 43 percent to 25 percent. What remains puzzling, he said, is why one quarter of voters still stand by the Compass.
Challenging the government directly, he called on it to bring the three section bill and hold elections if his claims are false. He also issued a warning, recalling how Ranil Wickremesinghe postponed local elections after 2015, only for a new force, Pohottuwa, to emerge and sweep the 2018 polls.
Delaying elections, he warned, accelerates collapse. In November 2024, the Compass secured 6.9 million votes. By the by elections, that figure had fallen to 4.5 million, a loss of 2.4 million votes in under six months. A one third collapse, he said, is unprecedented. From that perspective, the government’s real relief may simply be that it still has 25 percent left.
