Japan has issued a warning about an elevated risk of a major earthquake, marking the first time such a notice has been given. The advisory, announced on Thursday night local time, urges residents to stay alert but does not recommend evacuation. It clarifies that while the risk is higher than usual, this does not necessarily indicate that a large earthquake is imminent.
The warning follows a 7.1 magnitude earthquake off the southern island of Kyushu, which caused no significant damage. However, the epicenter of this quake, located at the edge of the Nankai Trough—a seismic zone along Japan’s Pacific coast—has heightened concerns.
The Nankai Trough stretches from Suruga Bay in central Japan to the Hyuganada Sea in Kyushu. Historical records show that earthquakes in this region, known for their massive scale, have caused substantial damage and loss of life. These megaquakes occur approximately every 90 to 200 years, with the last major event recorded in 1946.
Experts estimate a 70% to 80% probability of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, according to Kyodo News. The worst-case scenarios predict that such an earthquake, coupled with potential tsunamis, could result in over 200,000 casualties.
At a press conference on Thursday, Shinya Tsukada of the Japanese Meteorological Agency emphasized that while there is a higher probability of a significant earthquake compared to normal times, there is no specific timeline for when it might occur. The current advisory, the less severe of two alert levels, will remain in effect for one week.
Residents are advised to be vigilant and prepare by reviewing evacuation routes and ensuring they have sufficient supplies. While maintaining their daily routines, individuals should be cautious and ready to act if necessary.
