A new study published in The Lancet has issued a stark warning that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could claim nearly 40 million lives by 2050, as the global superbug crisis escalates. The study projects that, without significant interventions, the number of deaths directly attributable to AMR will rise by almost 70% by mid-century.
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, fungi, and other pathogens develop the ability to resist the drugs designed to kill them, rendering treatments ineffective. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), AMR is one of the most significant global public health threats today. It is largely fueled by the overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans, animals, and agriculture, giving rise to superbugs that can evade even the strongest medications.
The Rising Toll of AMR
The research, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, revealed that from 2025 to 2050, the world could witness over 39 million deaths directly attributable to AMR. If current trends continue, by 2050, annual global deaths could reach 1.9 million directly due to AMR, and up to 8.2 million when considering related factors.
Dr. Chris Murray, the lead author and director of IHME, stressed the urgent need for new antibiotics and robust antibiotic stewardship to combat this growing crisis. “We need appropriate attention on new antibiotics and antibiotic stewardship so that we can address what is really quite a large problem,” he said.
A Growing Crisis Among Older Populations
The study found that while AMR deaths among children under the age of 5 dropped by over 50% between 1990 and 2021, thanks to vaccines, water sanitation, and improved treatment programs, deaths in adults aged 70 and older increased by over 80%. This trend is expected to worsen as the global population ages.
One of the most significant drivers of AMR-related deaths has been methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), with deaths attributable to this superbug nearly doubling from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021.
Inequities in Healthcare Access Worsen AMR Impact
Regions most affected by AMR, such as South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, are also the ones where equitable access to quality healthcare is limited. The study highlighted that many people in low-resource settings lack access to antibiotics, basic medical care, and essential hospital services, contributing to the rising death toll.
“Even basics like oxygen are often not available in low-resource settings,” Dr. Murray noted. “A full spectrum of supportive care, including access to intensive care units and antibiotics, is essential to make a real difference.”
Preventing a Future Catastrophe
Despite the grim projections, the study offers some hope. If significant investments are made in healthcare access and new antibiotic development, the world could potentially avert up to 92 million cumulative deaths from AMR by 2050. If new potent antibiotics were developed, an estimated 11 million lives could be saved over the same period.
Dr. Steffanie Strathdee, an expert in global health at the University of California San Diego, emphasized the need for innovative approaches, including phage therapy—a treatment that uses viruses to target bacteria, which saved her husband from a superbug infection. She said that reducing antibiotic overuse in humans, animals, and farming, while expanding access to clean water, vaccines, and healthcare, could significantly lower AMR’s deadly toll.
“While AMR is a major threat, there is hope,” said Strathdee. “By scaling up interventions, we can dramatically reduce the number of deaths in the future.”
Global Action Needed
Samuel Kariuki from the Kenya Medical Research Institute, in a commentary accompanying the study, warned that the projections might even underestimate the problem, as they don’t account for the emergence of new, potentially deadlier superbugs.
He urged global policymakers to act swiftly to address AMR, calling for targeted investments in healthcare, antibiotic stewardship, and research to prevent a future catastrophe. With concerted global effort, experts believe the looming superbug crisis can be mitigated before it claims millions more lives.
