Sri Lanka Joint Opposition talks gather pace, but rival ambitions, fractured parties and competing presidential hopefuls threaten unity before 2029.
A Sri Lanka Joint Opposition could emerge as the biggest political challenge to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in 2029, but rival ambitions and old hostilities threaten the project before it has even properly begun.
Dissanayake may have been at the height of his popularity when he won the presidential election in September 2024. However, statistics do not lie. He polled only 42 per cent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the combined votes of Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe exceeded 50 per cent.
Come 2029, there is a simple moral in that story for the opposition: united we stand, divided we fall.
That is why political circles have begun murmuring about what is loosely described as a “Joint Opposition”. Its purpose would be to challenge Dissanayake and the National Peoples’ Power (NPP) at the next presidential election.
Some preliminary discussions have already taken place.
These discussions have involved meetings between opposition party stalwarts. They have tried to identify ways of challenging the government more effectively.
Representatives have come from across the political spectrum. They include the major players, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Sri Lanka Joint Opposition Draws Old Parties Back
Unsurprisingly, the parties showing the greatest interest in the project are the two precursors of the SJB and SLPP. They are the United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), respectively.
Their interest is understandable.
Both parties want to maximise their chances of securing representation in the next Parliament. They also know that their chances are close to zero if they contest separately.
Significantly, both are now shadows of the powerful political organisations they once were. Neither party currently has a clearly identifiable potential presidential candidate.
The SLFP, in particular, is in shambles.
The party has split into several factions. Indeed, the divisions have become so complicated that keeping track of which faction does what is difficult.
Nimal Siripala de Silva, Dayasiri Jayasekara, Anura Priyadarshana Yapa and Duminda Dissanayake would all like to lead the party. Meanwhile, several court cases still need resolution.
The situation has become so messy that party patron and former President Chandrika Kumaratunga no longer wants to involve herself in the party’s affairs.
If anything positive emerges from discussions about a Joint Opposition, it may be the possibility of reuniting the SLFP’s different factions.
The UNP faces a different problem.
As long as Ranil Wickremesinghe is alive, the party has only one potential candidate.
Wickremesinghe is now recovering after medical treatment that involved major surgery. He has rarely appeared in public since then. Even when he has appeared, he has not been his usual feisty self.
He will be 80 years old in 2029. Therefore, serious questions remain over whether he could withstand the demands of another gruelling presidential election campaign.
New Parties Bring New Presidential Ambitions
Two relatively new political organisations have also joined the so-called Joint Opposition brigade.
They are the Eksath Janaraja Peramuna (EJP), led by former minister Patali Champika Ranawaka, and Sarvajana Balaya (SB). Businessman turned media magnate turned politician Dilith Jayaweera leads the latter.
The EJP and SB share several characteristics.
Both remain largely unknown entities without extensive grassroots networks. Neither enjoys broad popular appeal. However, Ranawaka and Jayaweera are highly ambitious leaders who believe they are worthy of becoming the country’s next President.
At the recent SB May Day rally, supporters hailed Jayaweera as the “tenth Executive President of Sri Lanka” when he rose to speak.
Ranawaka is less crude in his approach, but he does little to disguise his own ambition.
Into this political mixture, the SJB and SLPP are forced to contribute. Otherwise, they risk appearing reluctant to participate in efforts to build opposition unity.
However, it is no secret in the corridors of power that Namal Rajapaksa and Sajith Rajapaksa desperately wish to become their respective parties’ presidential candidates in 2029.
No amount of discussion about a “Joint Opposition” will change that reality.
Of course, a coalition combining the SJB, SLPP, UNP, SLFP, EJP and SB contains obvious contradictions.
These parties were once bitter political rivals. They attacked one another relentlessly and criticised each other’s policies in the strongest possible terms.
Coming together solely to oppose the NPP is not necessarily a strategy that will appeal to voters. It may not even sit comfortably with their own party members.
The Ranawaka Factor Complicates the Equation
Then there is what could be called the “Ranawaka factor”.
Patali Champika Ranawaka appears to believe that, among the leading potential opposition candidates, he is the smarter and better politician.
The possible field includes Premadasa, Rajapaksa, Jayaweera and Ranawaka.
He is probably right.
Ranawaka is more articulate and appears to have a plan and a vision. That gives him an advantage in a field of possible candidates who have already damaged their own prospects.
Premadasa’s verbose utterances have become material for jokes on social media.
Rajapaksa remains under a cloud of corruption allegations. Jayaweera, meanwhile, is largely seen as an “also ran”. The blatant racist stance of his party will not improve his prospects.
Premadasa and Rajapaksa have also failed to demonstrate anything particularly exceptional during their political careers. Their greatest advantages have been bearing the correct surnames and being the children of their fathers.
Those fathers, the article argues, have not exactly left fond memories among most voters.
This is why suspicion surrounds the continuing discussions about forming a Sri Lanka Joint Opposition.
Some believe Ranawaka is cleverly using the forum to establish himself as the candidate with the strongest chance of defeating Anura Kumara Dissanayake at a presidential election.
Could Ranawaka Become the Common Candidate?
What Ranawaka appears to be hoping for is simple.
He wants the opposition parties to eventually conclude that he represents their best chance. If they reach that conclusion, he would seek their collective endorsement for the 2029 presidential election.
At present, such a scenario appears impossible.
However, stranger things have happened in Sri Lankan politics.
Opposition parties pooled their resources in 2015 and allowed Maithripala Sirisena to challenge Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) also offered tacit support by choosing not to contest.
The result is now part of political history.
Sirisena secured one of Sri Lanka’s most unlikely presidential election victories.
That precedent will inevitably remain in the background as opposition leaders consider their options for 2029. A candidate who initially appears unlikely can become viable when rival parties decide that defeating the incumbent matters more than promoting their individual candidates.
Yet the present situation is complicated by the number of ambitions involved.
The SJB has its interests. The SLPP has its own plans. The UNP remains tied to Wickremesinghe, while the SLFP struggles to resolve its internal divisions.
At the same time, Ranawaka and Jayaweera have their own presidential ambitions.
Building a coalition from these competing interests will require more than meetings and photographs. The parties would have to agree on leadership, policy, political identity and, most importantly, a single presidential candidate.
Unity May Be the Opposition’s Only Path
Three years is a very long time in politics.
It would be foolish to make firm predictions about the opposition’s fate now. Political alliances can change quickly, candidates can rise or fall, and governments can gain or lose popularity.
However, the arithmetic of 2024 will continue to haunt the opposition.
Dissanayake won the presidency with 42 per cent of the vote, while Premadasa and Wickremesinghe together secured more than 50 per cent.
That does not automatically mean a combined opposition candidate would win a future election. Votes do not always transfer neatly from one party or candidate to another.
However, the lesson facing the opposition is difficult to ignore.
The challenge for a Sri Lanka Joint Opposition is not identifying a common enemy. That part is easy. The real challenge is convincing political rivals to abandon personal ambitions, overcome years of hostility and agree on who should lead them.
For now, the Joint Opposition remains more an idea than a political reality.
But one lesson from 2024 appears certain to survive until 2029: if the opposition remains divided, failure may once again be the most predictable result.
