If Ranil Wickremesinghe hadn’t split the SLPP in time for the 2024 presidential election, he wouldn’t have qualified to run. That would have cleared the path for Sajith Premadasa to secure an easy victory. Instead, a web of political miscalculations, resentment, and betrayal allowed Anura Kumara Dissanayake to rise to the top.
Anura’s win wasn’t solely due to his own popularity. It came largely from the intense animosity Ranil and the SLPP held against Sajith. This hatred gave rise to efforts aimed at weakening Sajith’s position, including talk that Namal Rajapaksa was a more viable candidate. The JVP capitalized on this, with their members amplifying narratives that sidelined Sajith and glorified Anura. Ironically, in trying to bring Sajith down, his enemies helped empower the JVP a party they once feared.
Those who previously targeted Sajith and his family may now be rethinking their actions. As an old saying goes: “If the fish swallows the wrong fish, it’s the cat that suffers.”
Even though Sajith had defeated Ranil and the SJB appeared strong, Ranil was still portrayed in the media as a potential kingmaker, fueling speculation about a coalition. This false narrative gave a significant boost to Anura and the JVP. One symbolic moment saw Anura in a televised debate speaking to an empty chair meant for Sajith—suggesting Sajith lacked the courage to confront him.
Now, Ranil’s faction speaks about “protecting the right bank,” framing the next presidential election as a face-off between Ranil on the right and Anura on the left completely sidelining Sajith. Some even seem to be backing Anura now.
If the 2023 local government elections had taken place as planned, the SJB would likely have won. By then, the JVP was gaining traction, and the SLFP had won key local councils. Yet, it’s alleged that Ranil and the SLFP worked together to block Sajith from gaining the votes he needed to become president.
Had Ranil not fractured the SLPP in 2024, he would have been disqualified from the race. In that case, a united SLPP could have taken some of Anura’s votes, while Sajith, supported by former UNP MPs, would likely have drawn enough votes to stay competitive. Even if Sajith lost the presidency, his party could have retained parliamentary strength.
It was Basil Rajapaksa who ultimately realized their efforts to destroy Sajith were helping the JVP. Fearing a growing JVP voter base, Basil urged Ranil to hold a general election. Had it taken place, Sajith might have gained at least one more seat. Even though Anura won 42% in the presidential election, the JVP would have struggled more in a general election. But this plan relied on Ranil teaming up with the SLPP, which required Mahinda Rajapaksa being made Prime Minister a condition the SLPP rejected.
As SJB leaders debated these terms, Ranil was reportedly kept in a separate room at the Presidential Secretariat, ready to be sworn in as Prime Minister under Rajapaksa control. In Gotabaya’s memoir, he mentions that Sajith didn’t outright reject the offer, but put forward his own conditions.
If Gotabaya had accepted Sajith’s terms and named him Prime Minister, followed by a general election, the SJB might have gained a majority though winning 113 seats would have been tough. In that scenario, the SLPP would have become the main opposition, and the JVP would have secured around 20 seats. Even during the aragalaya protests, JVP support was modest. Anura even warned against joining the protest without official party approval. When Sajith was attacked at the protest, Anura made only a brief appearance.
Anura’s rise really took off when Ranil used SLFP votes to secure the presidency despite the JVP previously labeling the SLFP as “bank robbers.”
“They are all lying and killing each other…”
This public frustration began to shift support to the JVP.
When Gotabaya fled the country during the height of the aragalaya, the Speaker arranged an all-party meeting with military and police leadership to push both Gotabaya and Ranil to resign. Ranil defied this and managed to become Acting President with SLFP backing.
If the Speaker had assumed leadership as planned, Sajith would have become Prime Minister, leading an interim all-party government into a general election. The SLPP would have landed in opposition, the JVP third, and Sajith likely would have secured a majority perhaps even enough to abolish the presidency.
But hatred for Sajith left a void. Into that void stepped Anura helped by miscalculations, media spin, and fractured alliances. And the aftershocks of that decision are still rippling through Sri Lanka’s political landscape.
SOURCE :- SRI LANKA GUARDIAN
