The board of the global nuclear watchdog has officially declared that Iran is violating the agreements aimed at limiting its nuclear weapons for the first time in 20 years. Nineteen of the 35 countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted in favor of the resolution, which was tabled by the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
The agency said Iran’s “failure on numerous occasions” to provide the IAEA with full answers about undeclared nuclear materials and activities was a “non-compliance” with the agreements. The agency also expressed concern about Iran’s stockpile of uranium, which could be used to make reactor fuel as well as nuclear weapons.
Iran denounced the resolution as a “political” move. Iran insists its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful and that it will never seek to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.
Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long favoured a military approach over a diplomatic one.
Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel on April 13 last year raised fears of a wider crisis in the Middle East.
Who has more power?
A number of international experts and data sources have been used to assess this question. However, each country may have significant hidden potential.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has produced the best estimate possible to compare the military strength of the two countries, using a variety of official and open-source methodologies.
Other organizations, such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, also conduct assessments, but their accuracy can vary for countries that often do not provide figures.
Nicholas Marsh of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO) notes that the IISS is widely regarded as the global benchmark for evaluating military strength.
According to the IISS, Israel spends significantly more on its defense budget than Iran and would deploy considerable forces in any conflict.
Iran’s defense spending in 2022 and 2023 was about $7.4 billion, while Israel’s reached $19 billion—more than double. Relative to gross domestic product (GDP), Israel’s defense expenditure is twice that of Iran.
Technological advantage
Based on IISS figures, Israel possesses around 340 strike aircraft, providing it a major advantage in precision air strikes.
These jets include long-range F-15s, F-35 stealth fighters capable of radar evasion, and fast attack helicopters.
Iran, by contrast, is estimated to have about 320 strike aircraft, many dating back to the 1960s such as the F-4, F-5, and F-14. Experts are unsure how many remain airworthy due to a lack of spare parts.
Iron Dome and Arrow
Israel’s missile defense systems, notably Iron Dome and Arrow, form the backbone of its protection strategy.
Missile engineer Uzi Rubin, founder of the Israel Missile Defense Organization and now a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said these systems have proven their effectiveness by intercepting nearly all missiles and drones aimed at Israel in past attacks.
“I felt very satisfied and very happy… It’s specifically designed to work against targets. It’s short-range missile defense. There’s nothing like it in any other [system],” he stated.
How far is Iran from Israel?
Israel lies over 2,100 kilometers from Iran, making long-range missiles the primary offensive tool in any confrontation, according to defense analysts.
Iran is believed to possess the Middle East’s largest and most varied missile arsenal. In 2022, General Kenneth McKenzie of the U.S. Central Command estimated that Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles.
Israel is also a key global exporter of missile technology, while Iran focuses on local development and deployment.
Iran’s Missiles and Drones
Iran’s experience in drone and missile warfare dates back to the Iran-Iraq war (1980–1988). Since then, the country has built up a wide range of short- and long-range missile and drone capabilities, many of which have been used in recent hostilities.
Naval Capabilities
Iran has a larger navy in terms of ship numbers, with about 220 vessels, while Israel maintains a fleet of 60. However, Iran’s navy is aging and less technologically advanced.
Cyberattacks
Despite having a less advanced defense system overall, Iran invests significantly in cyber capabilities. Electronic attacks on Israel’s military could have serious impact.
Israel’s National Cyber Directorate reported over 3,380 cyberattacks from October to December 2023. Many were believed to be coordinated with Hezbollah.
Iran, for its part, claimed it thwarted nearly 200 cyberattacks in the month prior to its parliamentary elections. In December, a cyberattack temporarily shut down gas stations across the country.
Nuclear Threats
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity.
Iran, on the other hand, insists it does not have and does not intend to acquire nuclear arms, though its enrichment activities continue to raise suspicions.
Geography and Demographics
Iran is significantly larger in both landmass and population. With approximately 89 million citizens, Iran’s population is nearly ten times Israel’s 10 million.
In terms of manpower, Iran maintains about 600,000 active-duty soldiers compared to Israel’s 170,000, according to IISS.
Political Landscape and Public Sentiment
Some Israeli lawmakers and cabinet members reportedly advocate for military action against Iran, especially during times of domestic political instability. Analysts note that Prime Minister Netanyahu often resorts to hardline rhetoric against Iran when politically cornered.
However, public opinion differs. A recent poll from April 2024 found that nearly 75% of Israeli citizens opposed launching retaliatory strikes against Iran. The survey, conducted among 1,466 Israeli adults across ethnic groups, indicates a significant gap between government posture and popular sentiment.
Proxy Conflict
While Iran and Israel have not engaged in direct warfare, both remain entangled in a shadow conflict involving targeted assassinations, cyberattacks, and the use of proxy groups.
Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon is well-documented. The group, heavily armed and trained by Iran, frequently engages in skirmishes with Israeli forces.
Iran’s backing of Hamas in Gaza is also central to this unofficial war. Hamas has been launching rockets into Israeli territory for decades and led a major attack on October 7.
Israel and Western governments believe Iran supplies Hamas with weapons, training, and logistics.
In Yemen, the Houthis represent another key Iranian proxy. Saudi Arabia has traced several missile attacks on its territory back to Iranian-manufactured weapons.
Tehran also wields influence in Iraq and Syria, supporting pro-Iranian militias and the Syrian government. Syria is often used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel.
The Iran-Israel rivalry spans every domain military, cyber, nuclear, and geopolitical. While both countries possess immense conventional and unconventional capabilities, the risk of escalation remains ever-present. Whether through direct confrontation or prolonged proxy engagement, the conflict continues to shape the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
