Israel’s once-reliable missile defense system is now under fire as Iranian high-speed missiles, submunitions, and electronic warfare cripple its effectiveness. The Iron Dome’s sharp drop in interception rates raises serious security concerns as 40 missiles strike Israeli soil. Are advanced Iranian tactics and dwindling Israeli stockpiles setting the stage for a turning point in Middle East warfare?
The effectiveness of Israel’s highly praised missile defense system has taken a hit, as reports indicate a sharp decline in its interception rate. According to NBC News, citing a senior Israeli intelligence official, Iran’s recent missile barrage achieved a 65% success rate in breaching defenses in the 24 hours leading up to June 20, 2025—a significant drop from the nearly 90% interception rate recorded just a day earlier.
The New York Times reported that Iran had fired approximately 400 missiles during this period, with at least 40 successfully penetrating Israeli airspace and striking populated areas. This marks a worrying shift for a country long reliant on multi-tiered anti-missile systems.
Several potential causes have been suggested. Chief among them is the depletion of Israel’s Arrow missile stockpiles. Media outlets like the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek have raised concerns about the country’s dwindling arsenal, particularly for high-end systems like Arrow 2, jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing. The cost and complexity of manufacturing these systems ranging from $1.5 to $3 million per unit—create logistical hurdles for rapid replenishment.
Another factor is Iran’s use of advanced high-speed missiles. Newsweek reported that the velocity and maneuverability of these projectiles significantly reduce the reaction time available to Israeli defense systems. Where Israeli forces previously had 10 to 11 minutes to respond, they now only have 6 to 7 minutes.
Compounding the challenge is Iran’s use of submunitions. According to a post by Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel, one missile exploded at an altitude of approximately 23,000 feet, releasing 20 individual submunitions, each carrying a 2.5 kg warhead. These dispersed over a 16-kilometer radius, overwhelming short-range defense systems and increasing the likelihood of impact.
Submunitions differ from MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) in that they do not require long-range delivery systems. However, both are challenging to intercept. While there is no evidence that Iran has developed MIRV technology, its current tactics are proving effective in exhausting Israeli defenses.
Iran’s “Khorramshahr-4” missile, reportedly capable of carrying multiple warheads, has likely played a key role in these recent attacks. The broader goal appears to be not only inflicting damage but also depleting Israel’s finite supply of interceptor missiles.
Another alarming element is the alleged use of electronic warfare. On June 16, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had used “new methods” during missile strikes that led Israeli defense systems to misidentify and attack one another. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted the IRGC as saying these techniques caused failures within Israel’s multi-layered defense command structure.
Israel’s defense apparatus consists of several interconnected layers:
- Iron Dome: Primarily counters short-range projectiles (4-70 km).
- David’s Sling: Handles mid- to long-range threats (40-300 km), including some ballistic and cruise missiles.
- Arrow Systems (Arrow 2 and Arrow 3): Designed for long-range ballistic missiles, operating in the upper atmosphere and even space.
The Arrow 2, guided by radar and detonating near threats, handles missiles up to 500 km. The Arrow 3, a more advanced system, uses a kinetic kill vehicle to directly strike incoming threats at ranges up to 1,500 km. While effective, these systems are costly and slow to manufacture.
The recent barrage marks a significant test of these defenses. Electronic jamming, depleted missile stockpiles, and the introduction of advanced warhead systems have contributed to a marked decline in effectiveness. If Iran continues to exploit these vulnerabilities, Israel may struggle to maintain its defensive superiority.
Ultimately, experts suggest that the drop in Israel’s missile defense success rate is the result of a combination of multiple factors, all highlighting the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare and the challenges even technologically advanced nations face in staying ahead of adversaries with growing capabilities.
