A deadly mix of airstrikes, failed truces, and deep-rooted mistrust has once again turned the Durand Line into a flashpoint, leaving civilians trapped in a cycle of bloodshed while Pakistan and Afghanistan struggle to hold on to a fragile ceasefire.
On October 18, 2025, Pakistan carried out successive airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika Province, killing eight people, including three club cricketers who were attending a post-match gathering. The strikes inflamed Afghan public sentiment and drew widespread outrage, prompting the Afghanistan Cricket Board to pull out of a scheduled triangular T20 series with Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The attack symbolized how quickly regional violence can spill into broader relations.
Just a day later, on October 19, a new ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan was announced in Doha, brokered by Qatar and Turkey after lengthy negotiations. Defence ministers from both sides agreed to suspend offensive operations and avoid supporting armed groups carrying out attacks across the border. Mediators proposed monitoring mechanisms and scheduled further talks in Istanbul. Negotiators admitted that more than 12 hours of discussions reflected heavy international pressure to turn fragile calm into a structured truce.
The Doha arrangement followed an earlier short-lived 48-hour ceasefire agreed on October 15 and extended on October 17. But like many before it, this truce quickly faltered under the weight of new hostilities.
Tensions had already spiked earlier in October. On October 9, Pakistan launched a controversial airstrike in Kabul, claiming to target Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Noor Wali Mehsud. Reports, however, suggested the strike hit a crowded civilian market, killing at least 15 non-combatants. What followed was one of the deadliest confrontations in recent years. On October 11 and 12, fierce clashes erupted along the volatile 2,640-kilometre Durand Line, leaving several dead and reigniting deep-seated rivalries. Artillery exchanges subsided only after urgent mediation by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, yet Pakistan’s air raids continued.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that at least 37 civilians were killed and 425 injured in cross-border strikes and clashes in the week starting October 10. The majority of casualties were in Kandahar, Paktika, and Khost. These incidents add to a grim history: Afghan officials previously confirmed that Pakistani strikes in April 2022 killed 47 civilians, while bombardments in December 2024 left dozens dead. Human Rights Watch has consistently condemned such actions, stressing that repeated airstrikes on populated villages demonstrate “disregard for civilian life.” Between August 2021 and October 2025, reports suggest Pakistani strikes inside Afghanistan killed between 210 and 230 civilians and injured hundreds more.
The roots of the violence run deep. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban administration of harbouring TTP militants who have carried out hundreds of attacks inside Pakistan, placing relentless pressure on Islamabad’s security forces. Kabul denies sponsorship, blaming instability on Pakistani territory itself. Central to the dispute is the contested Durand Line: the Taliban refuses to recognize this colonial-era border, while Pakistan treats it as an international frontier. This disagreement hampers cooperative border policing, fuels retaliatory raids, and leaves civilians vulnerable to unilateral strikes.
The political and ideological gulf between Kabul and Islamabad has created a vicious cycle of mistrust. Repeated accusations, retaliatory actions, and sharp rhetoric destabilize border communities and make de-escalation nearly impossible. In particular, the TTP’s hardline discourse, frequently branding the Pakistani state as murtad (apostate), adds another layer of hostility, making peace talks fragile and unsustainable.
Despite the ceasefire announcement on October 19, the odds of it holding appear slim. Domestic political pressures weigh heavily in both capitals, while international mediators struggle to bridge irreconcilable differences. For now, the truce represents little more than a temporary pause in an ongoing four-year cycle of cross-border raids, airstrikes, and diplomatic collapses.
The cost of this cycle has been devastating. Hundreds of Afghan civilians have died in Pakistan’s cross-border campaigns, while TTP fighters have inflicted heavy casualties on Pakistan’s security forces and civilians alike. Each breakdown destabilizes the frontier further, eroding whatever trust remains between the two neighbours.
The Doha-brokered pause offers a faint hope: that both governments may be able to turn this fragile calm into a sustainable framework for regional security, protect civilians from further harm, and foster lasting trust. Yet history suggests otherwise. Unless Kabul and Islamabad move beyond rhetoric and genuinely engage in long-term solutions, the Durand Line will remain a theater of endless bloodshed, where ceasefires collapse as quickly as they are announced.
