Kerala’s left rule collapsed after decades. Now Sri Lanka’s NPP government faces similar challenges. Will history repeat? Key lessons inside.
One of the many surprises in the recently concluded state elections in India was the collapse of the socialist rule in Kerala. With that loss, India’s left has been left without control over any state for the first time in five decades. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) of Chief Minister P. Vijayan was so formidable that its hold on power was thought to be permanent in Kerala.
Some Indian political commentators have pointed out that the LF displayed a state capacity rare in Indian politics and tackled numerous issues efficiently, including natural disasters, economic slowdowns and the Covid-19 pandemic. It was also known for welfare delivery. Kerala’s achievements under communist rule are numerous. It has one of the highest literacy rates in India, exceeding 95 percent, due to sustained public investment in education.
It also boasts a robust public health system and impressive health indicators, such as a low infant mortality rate and a well-established primary healthcare coverage. There have been pro-people land reforms which have benefited ordinary people and weakened feudal structures. Poverty alleviation is also a success story in Kerala. Poverty dropped from 60 percent in the 1970s to near zero during recent years. Kerala received international recognition for its women centred poverty alleviation programme.
Welfare delivery was also quite satisfactory, with the expansion of social security pensions and food subsidies for vulnerable groups. Economic stability was notable with sufficient investment in infrastructure, tourism and the knowledge economy. The LDF governments had their fair share of critics, who were not happy with how issues such as unemployment were handled. It was also claimed that Kerala lagged behind other states which had achieved impressive progress in industrialization.
The communist governments also faced allegations of various irregularities and corruption. A gold smuggling scandal, a controversial hydropower deal and an alleged bond scam stand out among them. But it is not these allegations alone that led to the collapse of the left rule in Kerala. The factors that bring down governments are usually political, economic and moral, but some could also be psychological. Prolonged incumbency tends to result in complacency on the part of rulers.
It leads to institutional insulation and unresponsiveness, and in most cases, tends to breed corruption and abuse of power. When political parties stay in power for extended periods, they become prone to internal rivalries arising from competing ambitions and ideological differences. Such factors, even if managed, begin to tell on governments, making them institutionally weak. Voters are rarely satisfied with what they have. It is human nature to take the existing state of affairs for granted and desire change.
The Kerala voters have reposed their trust in the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF). This is no mean achievement for the battered Congress and Rahul Gandhi, who has failed to turn his party into an effective countervailing force against the Modi juggernaut. But the challenge before the UDF is to match the delivery of the outgoing LDF. Voters naturally expect the UDF to outdo the LDF where delivery is concerned. It remains to be seen whether the Congress and its coalition partners will succeed.
The possibility of the LDF recovering lost ground and making a comeback sooner than expected cannot be ruled out. Vijayan and the forces supporting him cannot be written off. Interestingly, the fall of the left rule in Kerala has come while a self-styled Marxist government is struggling to cope with a host of serious issues and on the defensive in Sri Lanka. The meteoric rise of the JVP led NPP government in 2024 was hailed as a triumph of socialism.
However, whether the incumbent administration is Marxist in the real sense of the term is a moot point, for it has abandoned socialist ideals for all intents and purposes. Its critics have pointed out that unlike in the past, it no longer displays the cutouts of Marx, Lenin and Engels at its May Day events. The economic policies it has adopted for political expediency are antithetical to Marxist principles. It came to power promising to renegotiate the IMF programme, which it said was disadvantageous to Sri Lanka, but reneged on its pledge.
Sri Lankans voted overwhelmingly for the JVP led NPP, making its ascent possible not because they believed in Marxist policies but because they were fed up with other political parties. It benefited from a massive protest vote following the country’s worst ever economic crisis. It endeared itself to the public by making various promises, including tax cuts, economic relief, jobs, restoration of the rule of law, eradication of bribery and corruption, and a new Constitution to abolish the executive presidency.
However, almost all these pledges remain unfulfilled. Those who promised to usher in good governance are now accused of various corruption scandals and subverting legal and judicial processes. Most of all, the radical departure from the rotten political culture has not yet materialized. JVP and NPP politicians are enjoying perks and privileges they said they would reject. It has resorted to methods such as increasing social welfare allowances to boost its approval rating instead of concentrating on sweeping institutional reforms.
But the soaring cost of living, unfulfilled promises of relief, and tax and tariff hikes have taken a heavy toll on the popularity of the JVP and NPP. The government is now wary of conducting the delayed Provincial Council elections, which will be an acid test for its popularity. The SJB led opposition has not emerged strong, and is not likely to be able to turn the tables on the JVP and NPP any time soon. But in politics, anything is possible. Even a minor electoral setback at the PC polls will be seen as the beginning of the end of the NPP rule.
