Tamil Nadu election results declared, but government formation remains uncertain. TVK seeks majority support. Governor rejects claim. What happens next?
Three days have passed since the Tamil Nadu state election results were declared, but it is still not decided who will form the government. The TVK party, as the single largest party winning the most seats, submitted a letter to Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar claiming the right to form the government. However, the Governor rejected it, stating that he did not have the support of the required 118 members.
“TVK leader Vijay met the Governor. During this meeting, the Governor made it clear that they have not yet obtained the necessary majority support within the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly to form a government,” stated a media release issued by Raj Bhavan.
Vijay had first met the Governor on May 6 and submitted a letter to form the government. Not receiving an invitation, Vijay met the Governor again on May 7. Once again, he requested the opportunity to form the government and submitted letters showing support from five Congress MLAs. The media release was issued after this meeting. This has raised doubts about whether TVK can form a government, and if not, questions are arising about how the next government will be formed.
Based on the current situation on the ground:
• TVK has won 108 seats. Since Vijay has won from two constituencies, he will resign from one seat, reducing TVK’s seat count to 107. Thereafter, the total number of seats in the Assembly will be 233, where 117 seats will be sufficient for a majority. If the Speaker is from TVK, the party will need another 11 members to form the government. Currently, with support from five Congress members already confirmed, TVK still needs the support of another six members.
• Support has been sought from VCK and the Communist parties who were allied with DMK. If they decide to submit a letter today informing support to TVK, with the additional six members, TVK will have an independent majority. If TVK makes another request to form the government with these letters of support, it is expected that the Governor will invite them to form a government.
• If the number of members decreases by one when electing the temporary Speaker, for example, if a member from another party, such as Premalatha from DMDK (if the party agrees), is appointed, TVK may be able to secure a vote of confidence.
• If Premalatha Vijayakanth does not agree to this, TVK could obtain the support of two members from the Indian Union Muslim League or PMK. If that also fails, legal experts say that appointing the Chief Justice of the High Court as temporary Speaker could help secure a vote of confidence.
As the leader of the party that won the most seats, Vijay is seeking the right to form the government. Within the time given to him, if he proves his majority in the Legislative Assembly, that is sufficient. Delhi Ambedkar University Professor Rajankurai Krishnan said that the Governor is wrong to invite someone to form a government only after they have already obtained a majority, because that is an abuse of the Governor’s power. He added that it is unfortunate that Vijay is not speaking about this matter himself. Vijay may have avoided meeting journalists until now, but now he should meet journalists and explain why the Governor should invite him to form a government.
VCK General Secretary Aloor Shanavas also expressed the same opinion. He questioned whether Vijay has the political confidence and courage to openly challenge the Governor for not inviting TVK to form a government. Rajya Sabha member and Supreme Court lawyer Kapil Sibal has strongly criticized the Governor. He said that when Governors become representatives of the Bharatiya Janata Party, they act according to the party’s instructions.
Other leaders including Kamal Haasan, leader of the Makkal Needhi Maiyam party, Thirmavalavan of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and Veerapandian of the Communist Party of India have also said that the Governor should invite Vijay to form a government. In support of this view, Kamal Haasan also mentioned the decision given by the Supreme Court in the S.R. Bommai case of Karnataka.
In Karnataka, a Janata Dal government led by S.R. Bommai was in power from August 13, 1988. Using Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, his government was dissolved on April 21, 1989, and brought under President’s rule. Although Bommai submitted a copy of the resolution passed by his party to the Governor, the Governor refused to give him an opportunity to prove his majority on the floor of the House. When Bommai appealed to the Supreme Court, a bench issued a very important order stating that the place to decide whether a state government has a majority is the Legislative Assembly, not the Governor’s house.
Professor Ramu Manivannan said that if TVK receives support from Congress, the Communist parties, and VCK, they will obtain a majority. However, he suspects that the Governor is making a strong effort to prevent this, and he believes that the BJP is behind these efforts. He said that since the BJP wants to keep the new government under its control, it is doubtful whether it will easily allow TVK to form a government. If Vijay does not accept this, there is a possibility of imposing President’s rule and calling a fresh election.
AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi Palaniswami personally met with AIADMK MLAs staying at a private resort in Pondicherry. However, the decision to be taken by the AIADMK party is still unclear. TVK Joint Secretary Nirmal Kumar said that TVK has not invited any party in the National Democratic Alliance for support, and they have no such plan.
Former VCK MP Sinthanai Selvan suggested that Thirumavalavan should become the Chief Minister with the support of both DMK and AIADMK. However, senior journalists say this idea is unlikely to happen. It is now clear that DMK is not making a strong effort to form a government on its own. Therefore, journalists believe that there is a greater chance of forming a government led by TVK with the support of parties in the DMK alliance, except IUML.
Senior journalist Priyan said that Tamil Nadu politics is currently very confusing. At this moment, there is no obstacle to TVK forming a government with the support of Congress, the Communist parties, and VCK. However, even if such a government is formed, there is no confidence that it will last even six months. He suggested that the support of AIADMK is one solution, but even if AIADMK alone supports TVK, it is important to consider whether the BJP will influence this step.
