Sri Lanka power cuts could occur without warning as weak generation reserves place the national electricity system at serious risk.
Sri Lanka power cuts could occur without warning in rural areas as the national electricity system faces a serious stability risk, an energy expert has warned.
Energy specialist Vidura Ralapanawa raised the concern in a post published on his Facebook account.
Ralapanawa criticised reports that linked the current electricity problem mainly to low water levels.
He argued that the greater concern involves the country’s available generation capacity and the ability to keep the national grid stable.
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According to him, reservoir levels alone will not resolve the problem. The system has become increasingly difficult to operate safely because sufficient reserve generation is not always available.
Power systems generally follow an “N-1” security criterion to protect the grid from sudden failures.
Under this standard, operators must maintain reserve electricity equal to the capacity of the largest power plant connected to the system.
This reserve allows the grid to compensate if that plant unexpectedly stops operating.
Sobadhanavi is currently the largest power plant in Sri Lanka’s electricity system, with a generation capacity of 320 megawatts.
Therefore, the national system should maintain at least 320 MW of reserve capacity.
However, Ralapanawa said available data showed that authorities failed to meet this minimum requirement on five of the past 11 days.
He warned that an additional increase of about 100 MW in electricity demand could place the system under further pressure.
In that situation, the National System Control Centre may disconnect electricity supplies to rural areas without prior notice, he said.
Ralapanawa also claimed such disconnections could occur without regulatory approval as operators attempt to prevent a complete national grid collapse.
His warning suggests the risk of Sri Lanka power cuts is linked to inadequate generation reserves rather than water availability alone.
