India’s economic ascent has been nothing short of historic. Having overtaken Great Britain to become the world’s fourth largest economy, India now stands as a global powerhouse—right next door to Sri Lanka. Yet, while India booms, Sri Lanka continues to blink, seemingly unable to capitalize on the strategic advantage of its neighbor’s remarkable rise. But it’s not too late. With the right vision and strategic alignment, Sri Lanka could still seize the moment, chart a new course, and benefit immensely from regional partnership.
Sri Lanka’s hesitation is not new. Historical tensions have long clouded the country’s approach to India. The roots trace back to the administration of J.R. Jayewardene, when plans to lease the Trincomalee oil tanks to a Singaporean firm caused a rift with India. Earlier leaders like D.S. Senanayake, Dudley Senanayake, Sir John Kotelawala, and Ranasinghe Premadasa consistently sought assistance from the West. Meanwhile, the Bandaranaikes turned to the then–Soviet Union, now Russia, for development support. India, despite being a powerful regional neighbor, was often sidelined.
Even in more recent decades, presidents Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Maithripala Sirisena, and Gotabaya Rajapaksa chose to prioritize relationships with China or Western nations over India. A consistent strategy to engage with India for long-term national growth never materialized.
This pattern cut across party lines. Both the pro-West UNP and the left-leaning SLFP showed a preference for Japanese investments. Despite Japan’s status as a former fourth-largest global economy, Sri Lanka’s persistent wariness of Indian involvement—rooted in historical and political mistrust—kept many doors closed. Even after the 2022 economic collapse, when India’s Adani Group offered to invest in Sri Lanka’s renewable energy sector, the proposal was rejected by the government of Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
Now, however, the global stage has shifted. According to the latest IMF report, India has officially claimed the title of the world’s fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan. For Sri Lanka, this milestone represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Proximity to a growing economic superpower with global ambitions could be a game-changer—if only Sri Lanka chooses to recognize it.
For years, Sri Lanka placed its economic bets on Japan. But the tables have turned. India has not only caught up but pulled ahead. What remains to be seen is whether Sri Lanka will finally awaken to the new reality and pivot towards its rising neighbor—or continue to miss the train as it leaves the station.
