As Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s NPP navigates foreign alliances, questions arise over echoes of Mahinda Rajapaksa’s China strategy, fuelling fresh geopolitical tension and policy debate.
Sri Lanka’s current administration under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is showing signs of a shift that eerily mirrors Mahinda Rajapaksa’s earlier China-centric approach, raising questions about whether the National People’s Power (NPP) government is preparing to pivot away from the West and realign with Beijing.
Back in 2022, just before Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy, China reportedly proposed a $4 billion bailout through then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. That lifeline, designed to help Sri Lanka avoid both default and an IMF program, was brokered by then Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal, a staunch critic of IMF conditions. Cabraal, who had China’s trust, believed the IMF’s austerity would leave Sri Lanka worse off.
He reportedly organized a Zoom call between Mahinda and the Chinese Premier facilitated by Beijing’s envoy in Colombo to seal the deal. However, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, under advisement from his economic team, ultimately rejected the Chinese proposal and turned to the IMF instead.
Fast forward to today: there are credible signs that the JVP-led NPP government is revisiting that very proposal. Party General Secretary Tilvin Silva’s recent visit to China has sparked speculation over whether talks to revive the offer are underway. China’s reported condition? Allowing a Chinese research vessel to operate in Sri Lankan waters an act viewed more as a geopolitical jab at India than a genuine scientific endeavor.
At a recent seminar hosted by the Bandaranaike International Centre for International Studies, the Russian Ambassador to Sri Lanka noted that both Russia and China remain open to supporting Sri Lanka. But curiously, the NPP administration has not responded to those offers at least not publicly.
Within the NPP itself, a divide appears to be emerging. Tilvin Silva and Bimal Ratnayake are seen as pro-China, while others such as Anura Dissanayake, Harini Amarasuriya, and Vijitha Herath maintain a cautious Western alignment, preferring to continue with Ranil Wickremesinghe’s IMF-backed economic framework. Pro-China voices argue that maintaining this Western track could erode the JVP’s traditional support base.
Meanwhile, parallels with Mahinda’s rule are growing. The Anura-led government has taken a more hands-on approach in controlling municipal councils, and critics point to changes in judicial appointments and minority rights as reminiscent of the Rajapaksa era. Analysts believe the NPP could be leveraging its China option as a strategic card hinting at a pivot eastward to gain more favorable terms from the IMF.
Whether this is a calculated bargaining tactic or a genuine reorientation remains unclear. But as Sri Lanka’s economic recovery hangs in the balance, Anura’s administration faces a defining geopolitical choice with echoes of the past shaping the road ahead.
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