Once powered by hope and a historic mandate, Sri Lanka’s political reset now faces a defining test as promises collide with reality, exposing cracks in governance, reform, and public trust.
Sri Lanka’s political landscape underwent a dramatic transformation in 2024, driven by a surge of public anger following economic collapse that propelled President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the National People’s Power coalition into power. Campaigning on promises of sweeping reform, accountability, and a decisive break from entrenched political traditions, the administration secured both the presidency and a commanding parliamentary majority. Yet, nearly a year and a half into its tenure, the government now faces a difficult truth that turning bold rhetoric into tangible reform has proven far more complex than anticipated.
According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, the NPP’s rise was fueled by a collapse in public trust toward Sri Lanka’s traditional political elites. Years of corruption, economic mismanagement, and the unresolved consequences of a three-decade civil war had eroded credibility across the political spectrum. That conflict, which ended in 2009 after immense bloodshed, left deep scars with tens of thousands dead and entrenched ethnic divisions that continue to shape the island’s political fabric.
Established in 2019, the NPP emerged as a coalition of progressive forces led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a party long associated with revolutionary leftist ideology and Sinhala nationalist roots. For decades, the JVP remained on the fringes of national politics, overshadowed by its past linked to violent uprisings. However, the economic crisis of 2022 created a rare opening for outsiders to capture public imagination. Dissanayake’s personal narrative of rural resilience and political determination resonated widely, symbolizing the promise of a national reset.
The elections of September and November 2024 marked a political turning point. Dissanayake’s presidential victory was followed by a parliamentary landslide that handed the NPP a two-thirds majority, effectively dismantling the dominance of long-standing political dynasties, including the Rajapaksa family. For the first time, a southern-based political force achieved representation across all electoral districts, including Tamil-majority regions in the north, signaling a moment of cross-ethnic political convergence.
However, as noted by the International Crisis Group, this seemingly strong mandate has shown signs of fragility. During the local government elections of May 2025, the NPP experienced a notable decline in its vote share. Although it retained its position as the dominant political force, the drop reflected growing skepticism among voters who initially supported the coalition out of frustration with the old political order rather than deep ideological alignment.
At the heart of the government’s struggles lies a widening gap between ambition and execution. The NPP entered office with an expansive reform agenda that included eradicating corruption, restoring the rule of law, addressing long-standing ethnic grievances, and introducing a new constitution to limit presidential power. Progress, however, has been uneven. Internal divisions within the coalition, particularly between the JVP’s traditional ideological stance and the more liberal outlook of newer members, have complicated decision-making and slowed policy implementation.
Economic governance has presented one of the most pressing challenges. Despite earlier opposition to austerity measures linked to the International Monetary Fund, the government has largely adhered to an IMF-backed reform program following Sri Lanka’s debt default. While this pragmatic shift has helped stabilize key economic indicators such as inflation, growth, and foreign reserves, it has also constrained the government’s ability to deliver meaningful relief to citizens struggling with poverty and declining real wages.
The burden of economic recovery has disproportionately affected lower-income groups. Increased state revenue has been driven largely by indirect taxation, placing additional pressure on vulnerable communities. At the same time, Sri Lanka’s debt levels remain among the highest in the developing world, leaving the country exposed to external shocks. These vulnerabilities were highlighted by the devastating impact of Cyclone Dithwani in late 2025, which caused widespread damage and loss of life, compounded by global energy disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East.
On corruption and governance, the administration has taken visible steps, including reopening investigations into past abuses and pursuing legal action against former officials. However, the distinction between initiating cases and securing convictions remains significant. Concerns have also emerged regarding whether the government will apply consistent standards of accountability to its own members, particularly amid allegations involving procurement practices and political protection.
Efforts to address past political violence have encountered institutional resistance. Investigations into events such as the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings have made some progress, including high-profile arrests. Yet, building cases capable of withstanding judicial scrutiny remains a major hurdle, reflecting deeper structural challenges within the justice system and security apparatus.
The question of wartime accountability presents an even more sensitive challenge. Investigating alleged abuses during the final stages of the civil war would require confronting the enduring influence of the military and its standing among the Sinhala majority. At the same time, Tamil communities and human rights advocates continue to report surveillance and intimidation, raising doubts about the government’s commitment to fostering a genuinely open environment for reconciliation.
Legal and institutional reforms have also stalled. Promises to repeal or replace controversial security legislation have yet to materialize in a way that satisfies civil society expectations. Draft proposals for new laws have drawn criticism for potentially expanding state authority rather than limiting it. Similarly, progress in establishing independent oversight mechanisms and strengthening institutions has been inconsistent, with financial constraints and political interference undermining effectiveness.
Perhaps the most ambitious component of the NPP’s agenda, the introduction of a new constitution, remains largely undefined. Despite holding the parliamentary strength required to enact sweeping reforms, the government has yet to present a clear roadmap or timeline. This uncertainty has fueled concerns, particularly among minority communities, regarding whether meaningful devolution of power and protection of minority rights will be realized.
Despite these challenges, the government retains considerable political advantages. Public approval remains relatively strong, and the opposition continues to be fragmented and weakened. As noted by the International Crisis Group, this combination provides a narrow but significant window for meaningful reform, provided the administration is willing to take decisive political risks and move beyond incremental change.
To regain momentum, analysts argue that the government must adopt a more inclusive and transparent approach to governance. Strengthening the independence of oversight institutions, ensuring accountability at all levels, and engaging more openly with civil society and independent experts could help rebuild public confidence. Addressing economic inequality through fairer taxation and targeted social support will also be critical in sustaining long-term political legitimacy and public trust.
