Sri Lanka El Niño risks demand a united national response on water, energy, health and food security as heat and drought pressures intensify.
Sri Lanka El Niño preparedness cannot become another political battleground as rising heat, drought, water shortages and erratic rainfall begin affecting communities across the country.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake recently chaired a discussion on strengthening national preparedness and response to anticipated El Niño conditions. Several ministers and senior Government officials participated.
The initiative is necessary and timely.
However, preparing for El Niño cannot remain solely a Government exercise. The administration has a central responsibility, but the challenge is national in scale.
Opposition parties, non-government organisations, the private sector and, most importantly, the public must also become part of the response.
Sri Lankans themselves will ultimately bear the consequences of prolonged heat, water scarcity, food pressures, electricity constraints and health risks.
Public involvement therefore has to begin with information.
People need to understand what El Niño is, how it can affect Sri Lanka and what individuals can do to minimise its impact.
Water conservation will be critical.
That applies both to drinking water and water needed for agriculture.
Energy conservation, food supply management and public health will also require widespread cooperation.
The Government may introduce restrictions or regulations in these areas. However, such measures will achieve little unless the public understands why they are necessary and actively participates.
El Niño does not recognise political affiliations.
It does not distinguish between Government and Opposition supporters.
It does not discriminate according to wealth, ethnicity, religion, gender or social position.
Its effects fall on everyone.
For that reason, Sri Lanka needs a genuine national effort.
Sri Lanka El Niño Response Needs National Consensus
The strongest case for a national committee is that major decisions could affect millions of people.
Such a body should include the Government, Opposition parties, technical experts, relevant civil society organisations and representatives of the private sector.
It should educate the public, consult communities and create shared ownership of difficult decisions.
Sri Lanka cannot afford to turn a climate emergency into another political football.
If experts determine that water restrictions, electricity conservation or irrigation controls become necessary, the Opposition should not exploit those measures simply to gain political advantage.
Likewise, the Government cannot treat expert advice as political property.
If one side introduces essential restrictions while another promises that it would never impose them, public compliance could collapse.
That would defeat the entire purpose of national preparation.
Major measures affecting households should therefore emerge, wherever possible, through broad consultation.
In severe circumstances, the country may have to contemplate decisions that would appear unthinkable under normal conditions.
Water allocation, irrigation releases, electricity generation and energy use may all require difficult compromises.
Consensus will matter.
Heat Intensifies Across Sri Lanka
The strengthening El Niño pattern is reported to be pushing average temperatures higher across Sri Lanka.
Baseline temperatures have been described as rising by around 1°C, or approximately 1.8°F.
This increase can create dangerous localised heatwaves.
In some dry-zone areas, including Trincomalee and Mullaitivu, temperatures have reportedly reached around 37.5°C.
Such conditions can intensify drought and create multiple secondary effects.
One of the most immediate is health.
Extended outdoor exposure increases the risk of dehydration and heat exhaustion.
More severe cases can develop into heat stroke, which may become life-threatening.
People working outdoors during peak daytime temperatures face particular danger.
Urban areas present another challenge.
Dense development and concrete surfaces can retain heat.
Colombo and other heavily built-up areas can therefore experience localised urban heat island effects, where temperatures feel considerably more oppressive.
Power System Faces Pressure From Heat and Water Loss
Sri Lanka’s electricity system also becomes vulnerable when heat and drought intensify.
Hydropower depends heavily on reservoir storage.
Higher temperatures increase evaporation while reduced rainfall limits inflows.
If reservoirs decline sharply, electricity generation can become more dependent on expensive thermal sources.
At the same time, household and commercial demand rises.
People use more fans, air-conditioning units and cooling systems as temperatures climb.
This creates a difficult combination.
Available hydropower can fall while electricity consumption increases.
That is why energy conservation may become essential rather than optional.
Public cooperation will again determine whether demand can be managed without severe disruption.
The same principle applies to water.
If reservoirs and smaller agricultural tanks continue declining, authorities may need to prioritise essential human consumption over other uses.
Such decisions are politically difficult.
But they become even more difficult when there is no national agreement on why they are necessary.
Agriculture Could Face Severe El Niño Pressure
Agriculture may become one of the hardest-hit sectors.
High temperatures rapidly remove moisture from topsoil.
Crops can fail before they become properly established.
Rice cultivation is particularly vulnerable.
The Maha season remains crucial to national food security.
If dry conditions intensify at the wrong stage of cultivation, farmers could lose significant yields.
The Government has therefore encouraged earlier planting in some areas so crops can develop before the worst heat and water shortages arrive.
However, timing alone cannot remove the risk.
El Niño can produce highly uneven weather.
A prolonged dry period can suddenly be followed by intense rainfall.
Farmers can therefore face drought and flooding within the same broader season.
That makes irrigation management, reservoir planning and weather communication increasingly important.
Agricultural authorities must provide timely guidance.
Farmers also need confidence that those recommendations are based on scientific evidence rather than politics.
Water Shortages Could Become Severe
The greatest immediate concern in many dry areas is access to water.
Water levels in numerous small reservoirs and village tanks could decline sharply.
Some could fall to extremely low levels.
Reports indicate that the Government has allocated Rs. 4.8 billion, approximately US$14 million, to provide drinking water to more than 72,000 people across seven dry districts.
In some severely affected areas, families reportedly receive around 75 litres of water every two or three days.
Such conditions show why Sri Lanka cannot wait until shortages become catastrophic before acting.
Water conservation campaigns must begin early.
Leakages should be reduced.
Non-essential consumption should be discouraged.
Irrigation releases must be carefully planned.
Local authorities should prepare emergency distribution systems before communities run out of water.
These are operational matters, but they also require public trust.
El Niño Can Bring Drought and Floods
El Niño does not necessarily mean that every part of Sri Lanka becomes uniformly dry.
Rainfall patterns can become more erratic.
The southwest monsoon may weaken, extending dry periods for farmers.
Yet inter-monsoonal conditions can bring heavy and sometimes unseasonal rainfall to western and southwestern areas.
Cyclonic weather systems can also increase the risk of flash floods and landslides.
That means Sri Lanka must prepare for apparently contradictory threats.
One district may be dealing with drought while another faces flooding.
A reservoir may be critically low during one period and overwhelmed by heavy rain later.
This volatility complicates planning.
It also makes a single national response framework more important.
Drought management cannot operate separately from flood preparedness.
Water authorities, disaster-management agencies, health officials, energy planners and agricultural institutions must work together.
Wildlife and Forests Will Also Feel the Impact
The consequences extend beyond people and agriculture.
Sri Lanka’s national parks and forest areas are also vulnerable to prolonged heat.
Drying waterholes and reduced vegetation can force animals to leave protected habitats.
Elephants and other wildlife may enter villages in search of water and food.
That can increase human-wildlife conflict.
Leopards and other species may also shift their movements as prey and water become scarce.
Forest fires are another potential danger during prolonged dry spells.
A national El Niño strategy therefore needs to include wildlife conservation, forest management and community protection.
The environmental impact cannot be treated as secondary.
What Should a National Committee Actually Do?
The first task should be public education.
Many Sri Lankans may not fully understand El Niño or its likely effects.
People need clear, practical information rather than technical language.
They should know how much water to conserve.
They should know when heat becomes dangerous.
Farmers should know when to plant.
Households should understand why electricity conservation may be necessary.
Schools, hospitals and employers should receive guidance on extreme-heat safety.
The public must understand that restrictions are not punishment.
They are measures designed to reduce wider national damage.
Secondly, the media should receive regular briefings.
Ideally, those briefings should come from a technically qualified, non-political spokesperson representing the national committee.
A non-partisan figure could attract greater public confidence than a politician.
Weather risks should not become campaign speeches.
The public needs consistent facts.
Thirdly, operational responsibility must remain with the Government.
A national committee cannot replace the executive machinery of the State.
Ministries and agencies will still have to make rapid decisions.
However, where possible, significant measures should be discussed with the committee.
Fourthly, once consensus has been reached, committee members should speak with one voice.
Public contradictions would only create confusion.
El Niño Could Become a Test of Consensus Governance
The debate goes beyond climate.
Sri Lanka El Niño preparedness offers an opportunity to reconsider how the country approaches governance itself.
Traditionally, Opposition parties have regarded criticism of the Government as their principal responsibility.
Criticism is necessary.
Bad policies must be challenged.
Short-sighted decisions must be exposed.
But opposition should also involve presenting better alternatives.
On issues of national importance, alternative policies should sometimes lead to consensus rather than permanent confrontation.
Environment policy fits that category.
So do water management and energy security.
These issues extend beyond election cycles.
A Government may change every five years.
Reservoir systems, energy infrastructure and climate risks do not.
National policies should therefore survive changes of administration.
Sri Lanka Needs Long-Term Water and Energy Policies
El Niño cannot be fully controlled.
No Government can stop global climate patterns.
But Sri Lanka can reduce some of their consequences through preparation.
That requires immediate operational measures and longer-term strategy.
The country needs coherent national policies on water.
It needs stronger energy planning.
It needs climate-resilient agriculture.
It needs improved disaster preparedness.
It needs better public communication.
Most importantly, those policies should not be discarded whenever Governments change.
Consensus-based governance is often portrayed as weakness.
Political parties sometimes believe compromise means surrender.
Opposition parties may also see every Government difficulty as an opportunity for point-scoring.
That mindset has repeatedly damaged long-term planning.
Democracy should involve more than winning an election and using a parliamentary majority to impose every policy.
The 1977 Election Shows the Limits of Parliamentary Majorities
Sri Lanka’s political history illustrates the difference between electoral votes and parliamentary power.
The 1977 general election gave J.R. Jayewardene’s Government a five-sixths majority in Parliament.
Yet the UNP received only 50.97% of the votes cast.
That meant 49.03% of voters supported other parties.
The parliamentary outcome was entirely constitutional under the electoral system then in place.
However, it demonstrated how legislative power can become far greater than the actual share of public support.
A constitution alone cannot eliminate that tension.
Political leadership can address it.
Governments with large majorities do not have to treat every issue as winner-takes-all.
Likewise, opposition parties do not have to reject every proposal simply because it originated from the Government.
Climate, water and energy provide obvious areas where consensus could become normal rather than exceptional.
Has Sri Lanka’s Democracy Delivered Enough?
Without blaming one particular administration, Sri Lanka should also ask how well its current political model has served the country.
The nation became bankrupt in 2022.
Income inequality remains severe.
The gap between the wealthy and economically vulnerable continues to create social strain.
Available estimates suggest that around 10% of the population, roughly two million people, may be considered affluent.
Within that group, a smaller segment may be classified as extremely wealthy.
Meanwhile, approximately 25% to 27% of Sri Lankans, around five to 5.5 million people, continue to live below poverty thresholds.
Food insecurity and vulnerability in urban communities have increased compared with pre-crisis conditions.
Middle-income and salaried households face another kind of pressure.
They carry high living costs and heavy tax obligations but often do not qualify for targeted welfare schemes.
Programmes such as Aswesuma primarily focus on the poorest households.
Wealth, meanwhile, remains heavily concentrated in urban commercial centres and valuable property.
Rural areas and estate communities continue to face deeper multidimensional deprivation and indebtedness.
Economy Improves, but Political Culture Barely Changes
There have been positive developments.
Economic indicators have improved.
A degree of stability has returned over the last two years.
The country is allocating substantial funds to infrastructure projects that were neglected for years.
Health services are receiving attention.
Education reforms are being discussed.
Exports have improved.
Tourism has strengthened.
Remittances from Sri Lankans overseas remain important.
Yet the style of political governance often appears unchanged.
Parliament too frequently resembles a boxing ring rather than a chamber for serious policy exchange.
Noise replaces argument.
Personal attacks replace alternatives.
Parties defend positions simply because they belong to one camp.
That political culture becomes particularly dangerous during a climate emergency.
El Niño is not interested in who won the last election.
Sri Lanka Cannot Fight Climate With Political Rivalry
El Niño is already affecting countries around the world.
Sri Lanka is beginning to experience the consequences, and conditions could worsen over the coming months.
That makes this an appropriate moment to rethink governance.
The President’s meeting on preparedness is a good start.
But it should become something broader.
Sri Lanka needs a national framework that includes the Government, Opposition, experts, private sector, civil society and the public.
That framework should be transparent.
It should communicate regularly.
It should identify risks early.
It should agree on difficult measures before crises become severe.
Most importantly, it should prevent essential climate-response decisions from becoming ammunition in partisan campaigns.
Sri Lanka cannot eliminate El Niño.
But it can decide how intelligently it responds.
The country can conserve water before shortages become desperate.
It can protect electricity supplies before reservoirs collapse.
It can advise farmers before crops fail.
It can protect workers before heat becomes deadly.
It can prepare hospitals, schools, wildlife reserves and communities before conditions worsen.
And perhaps it can also learn something larger.
A country facing common dangers needs the ability to act together.
Sri Lanka has spent decades treating politics as a contest in which one side must win and another must lose.
El Niño offers no such luxury.
Its effects will be shared.
The response must therefore be shared as well.
If Sri Lanka can create national consensus around climate, water and energy policy, El Niño may become more than a crisis.
It could become the catalyst for a more mature form of governance, one in which the welfare of the entire country matters more than the political fortunes of a few.
