A month can reshape the entire balance of global politics.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again set foot in China. But this time, the circumstances are vastly different. For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin arrives not as an isolated leader cornered by Western sanctions, nor as a mere ally of Xi Jinping, but as a statesman negotiating on equal footing with the United States, the world’s leading economy and China’s chief adversary.
Putin’s journey began in Alaska, where he met with Donald Trump on American soil. There, he convinced Trump to roll back demands for an end to Russian airstrikes in Ukraine and threats of harsher sanctions. Fresh from that diplomatic win, Putin now heads to China, where the welcome will be warm, symbolic, and strategically significant.
In Tianjin, leaders from across the region are gathering for a two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, notorious for his hardline anti-Western rhetoric, is set to join. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, navigating strained ties with both Washington and Beijing, will also be in attendance.
Yet the real spectacle is only days away. In Beijing, heads of state will line up for a massive military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and China’s victory over Japan. For many observers, this week could mark the beginning of a revived global coalition directly challenging the United States.
The Return of RIC?
One key question looms large: is the Russia–India–China (RIC) alliance, once envisioned as a counterbalance to Western dominance but dormant for years, finally stirring back to life amid Trump’s escalating trade wars?
Some analysts believe so. They argue that Putin’s extended stay in China is a bold signal—an indication of the deepening Russia–China partnership, and a clear message to Washington: attempts to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing have failed.
Even if Trump offers Ukraine to Putin in exchange for peace and lifts crippling sanctions, experts argue Russia will not abandon China. Unlike in the 1970s, when Henry Kissinger successfully split Beijing from the Soviet Union, no such tension exists today. Instead, Western pressure has only drawn the two powers closer.
“Every move to economically isolate China has pushed it further into Moscow’s arms. The so-called ‘reverse Kissinger’ strategy has already collapsed,” explains Pierre Andrieu, a veteran diplomat and specialist in Russia–China affairs.
A recent policy paper from the European Center for Policy Analysis echoes that view: “If Washington believes ending the war in Ukraine and loosening sanctions will divide Putin from Xi, it has gravely misread the complexity of this relationship.”
With Western firms retreating, China has become Russia’s largest buyer of oil and gas and its main supplier of essential goods from cars to technology. More importantly, their shared ideological hostility toward Western liberalism has cemented their bond. Both nations, nuclear-armed and permanent UN Security Council members, now share an explicit goal: eroding U.S. hegemony.
The Xi–Putin Bond
Economic ties aside, much of the partnership rests on personal chemistry. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin mirror each other in striking ways. Both are 72 years old, products of Soviet-era communism, and architects of powerful, centralized states that tolerate no dissent.
Before the Ukraine war, they signed a declaration of “limitless cooperation.” Since then, Xi has repeatedly called Putin a “dear friend.” He has met him more than 40 times more than with any other world leader.
Yet China’s embrace comes with caution. “Beijing wants Russia strong enough to challenge the West, but not so strong that it slips out of China’s control,” notes Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution.
For Xi, Russia is an indispensable partner: stabilizing Central Asia, helping rally developing countries, and advancing a vision of a multipolar world order. For Putin, China is both an economic lifeline and a shield against U.S. isolation.
India’s Dilemma
The third pillar of the RIC, India, complicates the picture. Modi’s presence in Tianjin marks his first visit to China in seven years, following the violent 2020 border clashes in the Galwan Valley. The bitterness remains, but shifting geopolitics may force pragmatic cooperation.
Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods, triggered by New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil, are nudging India toward reluctant alignment with Beijing and Moscow. At the SCO summit, Xi assured Modi that “China and India should be partners, not rivals.” Modi, in turn, stressed a new “peace and stability” between them, even hinting at the restoration of direct flights suspended during the border crisis.
Still, skepticism runs deep. India cannot forget its border disputes, China’s closeness with Pakistan, or years of careful diplomacy drawing it closer to Washington. Joining a bloc perceived as anti-American could risk economic retaliation and undo years of strategic balancing.
The Show of Strength
Despite these uncertainties, Beijing is preparing an unprecedented display. On September 3, Tiananmen Square will host a grand military parade featuring tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers, veterans, and units from 45 divisions.
Among the 26 heads of state attending will be Putin, Xi, Kim Jong-un, and Iranian President Masoud Peskov. For the first time in history, the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will share the same stage in a choreographed show of defiance.
“This could mark the first real summit of authoritarian states,” observes Neil Thomas of the Asian Institute for Social Policy. Yet he adds a caveat: “The alliance is unlikely to endure. The members have clashing goals and deep mistrust.”
The Bigger Question
Still, the optics matter. Whether lasting or fleeting, the gathering in Beijing sends a blunt message to Washington: America’s rivals are willing to unite, however briefly, under a banner of shared opposition.
The revival of RIC, even temporarily, could mirror the influence of BRICS, which already represents a major challenge to U.S.-led global structures. Together, Russia, India, and China command immense populations, resources, and economic clout.
But for now, the real test lies in India’s choices. If Modi fully commits, Washington may face its most serious geopolitical challenge in decades. If he hesitates, the alliance could collapse under its own contradictions.
One thing is clear: this week in Beijing may be remembered as either the dawn of a new global axis—or a fleeting spectacle of convenience.
