Sri Lanka El Niño conditions may reduce rainfall and raise temperatures before bringing heavier rain later in the year, officials warn.
Sri Lanka is preparing for Sri Lanka El Niño impacts as officials warn of significant weather fluctuations in the coming months. The rapidly developing climate event could reduce rainfall and raise temperatures in the short term, before potentially bringing above-normal rainfall later in the year.
Officials outlined the risks and preparedness measures during a government media briefing held by the Department of Government Information.
Environmental Minister Dhammika Patabandi said a special committee appointed on June 22 will coordinate national preparations for the expected El Niño impacts.
The committee will introduce short-, medium- and long-term measures. These will focus primarily on food security, water management and energy security.
“We have brought together all relevant stakeholders to coordinate these efforts. Public awareness will also play a key role in ensuring the country is prepared,” the Minister said.
Sri Lanka El Niño Could Suppress Monsoon Rainfall
Director General of the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijemannage explained that El Niño is a global climate phenomenon rather than a localized drought event.
“El Niño is not a mere drought. It affects the entire world and is not limited to a single region,” he said.
Wijemannage explained that the phenomenon usually lasts between nine months and one year. During that period, it affects rainfall and temperature patterns differently across various regions.
Sri Lanka is currently experiencing the South-West monsoon. However, the country is likely to receive significantly reduced rainfall during the remaining monsoon months, Wijemannage said.
Temperatures are also expected to rise. Although July and August are usually dry months, the influence of El Niño could further suppress rainfall during this period.
However, rainfall is likely to return towards late September. An earlier onset is also possible, depending on wind patterns over the Pacific region near the Philippines and Malaysia.
Wijemannage also warned that forecasts indicate the possibility of an extremely strong El Niño event. Such a development could extend below-normal rainfall conditions until April next year.
However, he stressed that it remains too early to make definitive predictions about such a prolonged impact.
Historically, Sri Lanka has experienced heavier-than-normal rainfall during October and November in strong El Niño years. Wijemannage cited the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 events as examples. A similar pattern could repeat this year.
He also said the World Meteorological Organization has identified the current event as rapidly developing. If the Indian Ocean Dipole remains positive, rainfall during October and November could continue into December.
Reservoir Levels Offer Some Protection
Director General of Irrigation Eng. Dr. Kithsiri Waligepolage said reservoirs across the country currently hold around 50 percent of their capacity.
He said the anticipated rainfall reduction in July and August should not cause major concern. Reservoir inflows are normally low during this period.
Looking towards the Maha cultivation season, which begins in October, Waligepolage said anticipated rains during October and November would benefit agriculture.
He also confirmed that drinking water availability remains stable. However, authorities have observed some decline in water availability in parts of the Eastern Province.
Waligepolage added that reservoirs managed by the Irrigation Department primarily support agriculture and drinking water supply. Only limited allocations go towards hydropower generation.
Meanwhile, Director of the Water Management Secretariat at the Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka, Eng. Nilantha Dhanapala, said national reservoir storage currently stands at around 65 percent.
He said this places Sri Lanka in a stronger position than during the 2015–16 El Niño period.
Hydropower reservoirs currently stand at 60 percent capacity, while mini-hydropower reservoirs are at 68 percent. Mahaweli-managed reservoirs are at 71 percent, while Irrigation Department reservoirs stand at 62 percent.
Water Reserves Key to Maha Cultivation
Dhanapala provided a regional breakdown of current reservoir levels. Reservoirs from Kotmale to Anuradhapura stand at 74 percent capacity.
The Victoria–Maduru Oya system is at 58 percent. Moragahakanda and the Walawe Basin stand at 68 percent, while the Kelani Basin, including Castlereigh and Maussakelle, is at 74 percent.
Based on current storage levels, Dhanapala said Sri Lanka can support cultivation across around 860,000 hectares during the upcoming Maha season.
He also highlighted the Mahaweli system’s ability to transfer water from wet zones to dry zones. This capacity provides an important advantage during periods of reduced rainfall.
Dhanapala urged farmers to begin Maha cultivation on schedule in October to maximize the benefits of the expected rainfall.
The Sri Lanka El Niño outlook has also raised concerns about balancing electricity generation with agricultural and drinking water requirements.
Hydropower currently contributes between 25 and 30 percent of the country’s electricity supply. Dhanapala said authorities have not yet reduced water releases for electricity generation.
However, the Water Management Secretariat has asked the Ceylon Electricity Board to minimize reservoir use for power generation during the El Niño period. The move aims to protect water supplies for agriculture and drinking purposes.
The government briefing also included Director General of the Disaster Management Centre Major General (Retired) Sampath Kotuwegoda and National Water Supply and Drainage Board General Manager T. Bharathidasan.
With weather patterns expected to shift over the coming months, officials are focusing on coordinated preparation across water, food and energy sectors. Authorities are also closely monitoring rainfall forecasts, reservoir levels and the evolving strength of the global climate event.
