In a dramatic shift just days before the papal conclave, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has overtaken Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the new favorite to become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church, according to UK bookmaker William Hill. The conclave to elect the next pope is set to begin on May 7, following the funeral of Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21.
Tagle, former Archbishop of Manila and current head of the Dicastery for Evangelization, is now leading the odds at 9/4, signaling a 30.8% chance of election. If selected, he would make history as the first Asian pope.
Why It Matters
The pope heads the largest religious institution in the world, the Catholic Church, with 1.4 billion followers. Beyond spiritual leadership, the pope wields immense global influence, often shaping conversations on issues like poverty, migration, abortion, and social justice.
The New Favorites
Following Tagle in the bookmakers’ latest list are:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – 5/2
- Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) – 5/1
- Archbishop Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – 11/2
- Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary) – 7/1
- Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Jerusalem) – 8/1
- Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea) – 10/1
Just last week, Parolin had been the frontrunner, but a surge of interest has propelled Tagle into the lead.
Who Is Cardinal Tagle?
Seen as a moderate reformer, Tagle has made headlines for his compassionate stance on marginalized communities. He has:
- Urged the Church to soften its stance toward LGBTQ+ individuals and divorced Catholics
- Maintained firm opposition to abortion, calling it a form of murder
- Championed migrant rights, calling for greater empathy and protection
The Road Ahead
The College of Cardinals will begin its secret ballot voting process in the Sistine Chapel. Four rounds of voting will be held each day until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority. When a new pope is chosen, white smoke will rise from the chapel’s chimney to signal the election.
Betting Market Reaction
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps told Newsweek, “With only a few days to go before the conclave begins, there’s been a shake-up in our betting market. Tagle, who was previously 3/1, is now the frontrunner at 9/4, overtaking Parolin. Interest in Turkson and Zuppi has also grown.”
A Pivotal Election
As the world awaits the white smoke from the Vatican, the selection of the next pope could mark a historic turning point for the Catholic Church, particularly if it results in the election of its first-ever Asian pontiff.
